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NFL Pick’off – Week 13

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Want to find out the winning formula for NFL Sunday?

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Each Sunday I make my selections “Straight-Up” (SU) and “Against The Spread” (ATS) from the slate of games.

The team listed in bold is the straight up pick, where as the red +/- indicates the pick when including the Vegas line.

I’ll provide a brief sentence or two of nonsense or logic (depending on the outcome), for what led me to that choice.

I’ll be competing against Catch-22’s NFL Senior Editor (Mark Staniusz) throughout the season, and I will list his picks below.

Week 12 Results:

Phil 10-2 SU / 6-4-2 ATS

Staniusz 10-2 SU / 5-5-2 ATS

 

PHIL PICKS…

Denver @ Jacksonville (+3.5)

This game looks like a trap disguised as a reverse-trap. You could sit on the mountain top for ages debating the merits of why you should risk your hard earned paper route money on the Jags. Something seems off about this game, but I’m too much of a coward to ride with Blake Bortles against the Broncos D.

Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta

Maybe it’s something, maybe it’s not… Did you know the Chiefs haven’t beaten the Falcons at the Georgia Dome since September 18th, 1994? That was 3 months after Lisa ‘Left Eye’ Lopes of TLC burnt down Andre Rison’s house.

Houston (+6) @ Green Bay

Packers returned to life on Monday night against the Eagles and could salvage their season by winning out. That starts with a quasi-scare at home against the Texans, who will cover late to make the score look closer than it seems.

Philadelphia (+1.5) @ Cincinnati

The Philadelphia Eagles have NEVER won in Cincinnati. They’re 0-3-1 dating back to 1971. With a banged up 2016 Bengals squadron, Philly should prevail in this groundbreaking historical victory.

Detroit (+6) @ New Orleans

Feeling lucky in Week 13? Local New Orleans sportswriters are picking the Lions in this game despite 85% of experts siding with the Saints. Vegas loves Detroit in this spot. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark…

San Francisco @ Chicago (+2)

This feels like a 49ers win. Everything is pushing me in that direction except the numbers. Are we going to trust the computer on this one? A 65% statistically automated prediction rules the day over gambling instincts. If I lose, I’m waging a war against the machines.

Los Angeles @ New England (-13.5)

It would be nice if the Patriots events team set-up an Eric Dickerson vs. Jeff Fisher steel cage match at halftime. Chances of that happening are about on par with the Rams winning this game.

Miami (+3.5) @ Baltimore 

Justin Tucker is going to bleed you out with 101 paper cuts disguised as 5 field goals. This was a difficult game to predict, but I love getting the Ravens in the 3.5 Vegas wheelhouse. They’ll either win by 3, or find a way to win by less. Brace yourself for a wOnKy game.

Buffalo @ Oakland (-3)

This is the second week that I promised I would ride with the Raiders in a three week promise contract. Not much more to say here except I hope David Carr’s pinky finger holds up enough to cover the spread. Beware the push.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ San Diego

Jumping to conclusions here would see the Buccaneers appear on your bet slip. I understand it, but like earlier in the season with the Raiders, let’s wait and see before doing something foolish. Then again, betting on the Chargers is notoriously foolish. This is another riddle?! I can’t stand it. Stay away from this game by all means necessary.

Washington @ Arizona (-2.5)

Another mind trick to navigate here. These games are getting harder and harder to pick as the season progresses. Washington seems like the logical pick, although my gambling sense is telling me otherwise. I’m probably going to regret this, but the Redskins seem too obvious in this spot. Roll the dice on the Desert Birds kids.

NY Giants (+6) @ Pittsburgh

Both these 2016 teams are watered down versions of themselves. They’re more like a Light Beer if that makes sense? The Giants are bound to fall, but not before they put the stick in the spokes of your plans of betting the Steelers to cover 6 points at home.

Carolina @ Seattle (-7)

Gambling on the Seahawks recently is like being on a boat in some real choppy waters. Last week’s debacle in Tampa was designed to throw you overboard. Stay full speed ahead through the storm, and sail for peaceful waters.

2016 Season: 83-65-2 (SU) / 60-81-9 (ATS)

 

STANIUSZ SAYS…

Denver (-3.5) @ Jacksonville

Kansas City @ Atlanta (-5.5)

Houston (+6) @ Green Bay

Philadelphia (+1.5) @ Cincinnati

Detroit (+6) @ New Orleans

San Francisco (-2) @ Chicago

Los Angeles (+13.5) @ New England

Miami (+3.5) @ Baltimore

Buffalo @ Oakland (-3)

Tampa Bay @ San Diego (-3.5)

Washington (+2.5) @ Arizona

NY Giants (+6) @ Pittsburgh

Carolina @ Seattle (-7)

2016 Season: 94-54-2 (SU) / 73-68-9 (ATS)

 

All NFL point spreads from www.vegasinsider.com as of 3:00 PM EST

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Follow authors: @Phil_Jones2020 and @MarkStaniusz

 

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