NFL Pick’off – Week 14


Want to find out the winning formula for NFL Sunday?

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Each Sunday I’ll make my selections “Straight-Up” (SU) and “Against The Spread” (ATS) from the slate of games.

The team listed in bold is the straight up pick, where as the red +/- indicates the pick when including the Vegas line.

I’ll be competing against Catch-22’s NFL Senior Editor (Mark Staniusz) throughout the season, and I will list his picks below.

Week 13 Results:

Phil 10-3 SU / 8-5 ATS

Staniusz 6-7 SU / 4-9 ATS


Denver @ Tennessee (-1)

These upcoming games are paved with gambling landmines (left, right, and centre). It really is a marvel to behold, and an almost unsolvable riddle. The health of Broncos QB Trevor Siemian is a curve-ball in these proceedings and the whole process of selecting a winner in this game is proving to be rather difficult. Broncos seem wise here, but my gambling sense says Titans.

San Diego @ Carolina (-1.5)

It’s only the second game and there is already smoke coming out of my ears from mental exhaustion. I could go either way on this game and not feel confident in any way, shape, or form. Ideally, the Panthers have some pride and rebound significantly from that embarrassing loss to the Seahawks. Good luck figuring this one out kids.

Houston @ Indianapolis (-6.5)

There is absolutely NO WAY Brock Osweiler strikes again and snatches a victory from the Colts in the dying minutes. I feel much more confident in this selection, and only dark sorcery form the darkest of realms will enable the Texans to emerge victorious in this contest. I’m almost certain Osweiler’s deal with the Devil has already expired, so you should be safe here.

Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Cleveland

What fresh new hell is this? The 0-12 Browns face their Ohio football neighbours in what may be the least watched gridiron contest in North America on Sunday. I liked the resiliency and heart shown by the Bengals last week by blowing the doors off of the Eagles. You can rest assured they’re not losing to the Browns this week. I don’t like the Bengals in this spot, I love the Bengals in this spot. Don’t do something foolish by thinking RG3 is going to save the day or beat the spread. Browns fall to 0-13.

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo (+3)

Every now and then you’ve got to make a hero bet… This is your spot. The Bills seem to lose when they should win, and win when they should lose. How’s that for logic. This is a complete stoke of lunacy by circling the wagons with the Bills in this one, but somehow this makes more sense in the gambling matrix.

Arizona (-2) @ Miami

This may be the biggest coin flip of the season. I don’t trust either of these teams and logic would suggest you take the home team when you’re not entirely sure. The pre-game win probabilities are literally split 50/50. I would strongly urge you to stay away from this tilt if it’s avoidable. I’m leaning towards Arizona, which means we’re taking Miami… I’ve changed my mind, we’re taking Arizona.

Chicago @ Detroit (-7.5)

Well, well, well… What have we here? The Detroit Football Lions are making some noise in the NFC North. The leaves have been placed over the trap in Mowtown for the final four games. Same Old Lions will tumble into misery once again… What’s that you say? Stafford has a map and a strategy to avoid the pitfalls? He’s going to lead them to their first Division Title since 1993? Madness…

Minnesota (-3.5) @ Jacksonville

Every time Blake Bortles drops back to pass I here the theme song from Benny Hill. You can’t really expect Bortles to beat a decent defense over 60 minutes of play? It’s sometimes tempting to take the Jags, but having a gambling conscience can save you from the loony bin on any given Sunday. The Floridian Cats have been a train-wreak in motion all season long, avoid at all costs.

Washington (-2) @ Philadelphia

That Eagles stock is plummeting faster than a Popsicle melts in the microwave. I like the Washington Professional Football team to rebound here, especially with an active Jordan Reed. I can’t even talk myself into making a case for Philly in this game. Remember when the Eagles were 3-0? Me neither.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)

These games are increasingly difficult, it feels like a stay away Sunday… Oh, who are we kidding, fire the cannons! It’s time to jump on the Buccaneers bandwagon just in time for them to lose (mild sarcasm). When in doubt, roll with the Winston to Evans combo. It’s becoming a thing.

NY Jets @ San Francisco (-2.5)

The Jets looked so lifeless and uninspired on MNF that I vowed to take whoever they were playing this week. Of course they draw the 49ers in this never ending week of impossible decisions. Seriously, who is crafting up this slate of parody stew?! It’s like an entrance exam for a gambling Mensa fraternity. Anyone who goes 14-0 this week is automatically declared the president.

Seattle (-3) @ Green Bay

Did you know the Seahawks have made eight trips in their history to Lambeau Field and only won once? I find that statistic rather unsettling when siding with Seattle but the alternative is even more dire. The Legion Of Boom is going to dismantle the Packers receivers. We want the ball, and we’re going to score.

Atlanta (-6.5) @ Los Angeles

Such an unfortunate series of events last week for the Falcons against the Chiefs. The opponent this week is much less imposing and should be dispatched with relative ease. I love the Falcons in this spot on the Money Line. The 6.5 also seems rather plausible, almost too plausible. We may have fallen for a trap here but I’m not buying it. Staying cautious on this game would be a mistake, and a missed opportunity. Hammer the Dirty Birds.

Dallas (-3.5) @ NY Giants

The Giants are masquerading as a playoff team. Watch their 8-4 record dissolve into 8-8 faster than you can say Eli Manning. The loss of JPP isn’t helping their cause either. Why not ride with the Cowboys who are bringing an 11-game win streak into this game? You need to let go of that fairy-tale notion that the New York Football Giants are winning on Sunday.

2016 Season: 93-68-2 (SU) / 68-86-9 (ATS)



Denver (+1) @ Tennessee

San Diego (+1.5) @ Carolina

Houston @ Indianapolis (-6.5)

Cincinnati  @ Cleveland (+5.5)

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Buffalo 

Arizona @ Miami (+2)

Chicago @ Detroit (-7.5)

Minnesota (-3.5) @ Jacksonville

Washington (-2) @ Philadelphia

New Orleans (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay

NY Jets (+2.5) @ San Francisco 

Seattle @ Green Bay (+3)

Atlanta (-6.5) @ Los Angeles

Dallas @ NY Giants (+3.5)

2016 Season: 100-61-2 (SU) / 77-77-9 (ATS)


All NFL point spreads from www.vegasinsider.com as of 6:48 PM EST


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Follow authors: @Phil_Jones2020 and @MarkStaniusz



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