NFL Pick’off – Week 15

BALTIMORE, MD -- 12/8/13 --  Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith (22) breaks up a pass in the end zone  intended for Vikings wide receiver Jerome Simpson (81).  The Baltimore Ravens beat the Minnesota 29-26 Vikings on a snowy day at M&T Bank Stadium.   (Christopher T. Assaf/Baltimore Sun Staff) #2692

Want to find out the winning formula for NFL Sunday?

Each Sunday I make my selections “Straight-Up” (SU) and “Against The Spread” (ATS) from the slate of games.

The team listed in bold is the straight up pick, where as the red +/- indicates the pick when including the Vegas line.

I’ll provide a brief sentence or two of nonsense or logic (depending on the outcome), for what led me to that choice.

I’ll be competing against Catch-22’s NFL Senior Editor (Mark Staniusz) throughout the season, and I will list his picks below.

Week 14 Results:

Staniusz 8-6  SU / 8-6 ATS

Phil 8-6 SU / 7-7 ATS



Pittsburgh (-3) @ Cincinnati

I was a fool to go against the Steelers last Sunday in Buffalo. It never felt right, but sometimes the popular money gets sunk in a cloud of deceit disguised as a game of football (that’s potentially rigged like professional wrestling). As of publication, 22% of the public’s money is on the Bengals. While this is a minor conspiracy theory waiting to hatch each and every week, I would stay away from this game if I were you. Somebody’s getting paid.

Detroit (+4) @ NY Giants

Eli Manning is the quintessential Jekyll & Hyde QB, you just never know what you’re going to get with that cat?! Superbowl miracles, or all-time clunkers, it’s all in a day’s work for Peyton’s little bro… The Lions enter this game with decades of doubt hanging over them like bizarre trinkets found in that occult museum from the Conjuring. Luckily for them, the middle fingered bandit from Highland Park is about to perform an exorcism in New Jersey using an Eli Manning shoe lace, Jason Pierre-Paul’s finger, and a Bobby Layne bobblehead.

Philadelphia @ Baltimore (-6)

This is a feel bet more than anything… Everything about this outcome points towards a close game with the Ravens coming out on top. Baltimore has tricked us before by winning big, and by also finding ways to lose when they should win. Everything will return to it’s natural balance this week as Justin Tucker peppers the uprights with 3-point daggers. An injury riddled Philly sqadron hangs around to keep this close, but not close enough.

Green Bay (-5.5) @ Chicago

The Packers are rounding back into form with 3 games left in the regular season. It may be too little too late, or it may be just the right time to shine? Regardless, a loss here in Chicago for Green Bay would be devastating to any aspirations they have of meaningful January football. With 82% of the public hammering the Pack ATS, it may be the perfect crime for the Bears to drum up a fluky way to beat the spread… Buyer beware.

Indianapolis (+5) @ Minnesota

Stop the press… Peterson back for the Vikes?! This dude must bathe in Deer Antler spray and/or have some futuristic healing methods that were foreshadowed on Star Trek many moons ago. Regardless of the recovery strategies, it’s evidently a game changer if he has any level of effectiveness for the Vikings stagnant offence. If anything, it will be a nice warm-up game for AP before he travels to Lambeau to trample the Packers on Christmas Eve.

Cleveland (+10) @ Buffalo

What kind of sick joke is this? The Bills are laying 10 to the win-less Browns at home in the Misery Bowl. I can’t bring myself to pick Cleveland in the quasi-massive upset, however, I will tell the 2008 Lions to keep the champagne on ice… In a somewhat related story, Rex Ryan has been seen handing out resumes at a Hooters restaurant in Rochester, NY, disguised as his brother Rob. Other reports have the Coen brothers in the area filming the Big Lebowski 2. More on this story as it develops…

Tennessee (+6) @ Kansas City 

Remember the Titans? Not really… But I did remember they came through last week over the Broncos. They’re picking up the pace and pulling off some notable wins down the stretch similar to what the Bucs are doing in the NFC. I’m slightly hypnotized by the narrative of the Titans winning this game, but they’re running into the Chiefs at the wrong time. I see a close game that will prove entertaining with KC doing what KC does, finding a way to win.

Jacksonville @ Houston (-5)

Blake Bortles vs. Brock Osweiler from the site of Superbowl 51.  We are all witnesses, even though nobody outside of the markets playing will be watching this AFC South tilt.

New Orleans @ Arizona (-3)

Earlier in the season this game had some appeal, now it’s only relevant if you’re playing this “fantasy football” game or have some vested interest in selection order for the 2017 NFL Draft.

San Francisco @ Atlanta (-13.5)

We’ve come a long way down the from the place where we started with the 49ers. What a catastrophe of a season for a team that just recently was knocking on the door for another championship. It’s a convoluted mess of comprehension concerning how, and when, it all fell apart for a once mighty franchise? Somewhere, Chip Kelly shudders in disappointment, as the Falcons fly in for the kill.

New England (-3) @ Denver

Deuces, Jacks and the Man with the Axe, and  a pair of natural 7’s takes all… What random talent will emerge from the depths of the practice roster to make a game winning touchdown for the Pats this week?

Oakland (-3) @ San Diego

This is the third week in a three week promise contract to ride with the Raiders on victory Sunday… The Chargers are a hot mess of Californian sports politics and shadow corporate interest which is giving me a headache up here in Canada. I can’t waste much more time researching stats for this game, since it’s almost time to leave for hockey.

Tampa Bay (+7) @ Dallas

Watching the Cowboys melt down the stretch is going to be enjoyable. Do we see Tony Romo in the 4th quarter of this one, or does he get the start next week against the Lions? Either way, the best subplot to root for in the NFL right now if you’re not a Cowboys fan, is complete disarray in Dallas after an 11-1 start… Get your popcorn ready!

2016 Season: 101-74-2 (SU) / 75-93-9 (ATS)



Pittsburgh (-3) @ Cincinnati

Detroit (+4) @ NY Giants

Philadelphia @ Baltimore (-6)

Green Bay (-5.5) @ Chicago

Indianapolis (+5) @ Minnesota 

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-10)

Tennessee (+6) @ Kansas City

Jacksonville @ Houston (-5.5)

New Orleans @ Arizona (-3)

San Francisco @ Atlanta (-13.5)

New England (-3) @ Denver

Oakland (-3) @ San Diego

Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-7)

2016 Season: 108-68-2 (SU) / 84-84-9 (ATS)


*All NFL point spreads from www.vegasinsider.com as of 7:11 PM EST


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Follow authors: @Phil_Jones2020 and @MarkStaniusz



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