NFL Pick’off – Week 16


Want to find out the winning formula for NFL Sunday?

Each Sunday I make my selections “Straight-Up” (SU) and “Against The Spread” (ATS) from the slate of games.

Since most games are being played this Saturday (due to Christmas on Sunday), I’ve included my picks from both days.

The team listed in bold is the straight up pick, where as the red +/- indicates the pick when including the Vegas line.

I’ll provide a brief sentence or two of nonsense or logic (depending on the outcome), for what led me to that choice.

I’ll be competing against Catch-22’s NFL Senior Editor (Mark Staniusz) throughout the season, and I will list his picks below.

Week 15 Results:

Mark 10-3 SU / 6-6-1 ATS

Phil 8-5 SU / 6-6-1 ATS



Washington @ Chicago (+3)

All season long I’ve been warning pundits of the upset prowess of the Chicago Bears. They’re not as terrible as their record suggests and came within a questionable play call and a conservative field goal from putting the suddenly reinvigorated Packers to the sword. I don’t trust the Redskins to get it done when it matters most. This one’s for Clark Griswold.

Miami (+4.5) @ Buffalo

An early-90’s throwback classic! Records are deceiving in this match-up that sees a deceptively quasi-competent Dolphins team travel to upstate New York to try and solidify a ticket to the post-season. I don’t like the fish in this spot, but I do like them to keep this close in a war of AFC East attrition. The Bills, as always, remain… “In The Hunt”.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ New Orleans

No result would surprise me in this NFC South train-wreak, anything’s possible in the Big Easy. The Bucs have played well on the road this season and have carved out a winning record with a (-9) point differential. Last week against the Cowboys, Winston showed flashes of brilliance, mixed with flashes of incompetence. Missed extra-points and two point conversion ridiculousness, produces a strange score in favour of Brees and the Saints… Who dat?!

Atlanta @ Carolina (+3) 

Panthers poised to play spoiler once again this weekend and disrupt some NFC playoff seeding. 2016 statistical logic leans towards the Falcons, but we’ve learnt not to trust them when we should. Riverboat Ron rolls the dice, you should take my advice.

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-7)

Betting against the Packers at Lambeau in December is the kiss of death. Last week it looked like AP might be returning to deliver a Christmas miracle for the Vikings and changing this narrative. That glimmer of hope faded faster than you can say Francis Asbury Tarkenton. If Minnesota wins here, it will be one of the most surprising results of the year.

NY Jets @ New England (-17)

Traditionally, the Jets will play the Pats close when you least expect it… Vegas is preying on this historical fact while taunting and tempting you to take the +17. It’s like standing in front of a bowl of candy on Halloween (with nobody watching), and wondering if you should only take one? Help yourself, it’s the Jets (and their -116 point differential).

Tennessee (-5) @ Jacksonville

Our first road favourite that we’re riding with this week is the Titans. That’s right, the Tennessee Titans. I can’t bring myself to take the Jags, not even with those tantalizing 5 points staring at me like a dazed reindeer. Speaking of dazed reindeer, Blake Bortles still has a starting job for the Jaguars. That, in essence, is the truest Holiday miracle of them all.

San Diego (-4) @ Cleveland

It would be sooooo like Phil Rivers and the Chargers to lose in this spot. Avoid the negative thoughts… If you’re going to be a hero, this isn’t your war. Take the Bolts, and don’t ever look back.

Indianapolis (+3.5) @ Oakland

The Winter Wind is a raider, pillaging just for fun. He’ll knock you ’round and upside down, and laugh when he’s conquered and won.

San Francisco (+4.5) @ Los Angeles

My memory is muddy, what’s this river that I’m in? California is sinking, man, and I don’t want to swim.

Arizona @ Seattle (-8)

Last time these two teams played, they managed to tie each other after both had ample opportunities to win the game. It was legitimately an episode from the NFL’s Twilight Zone. That tie has muddled affairs in the NFC seeding process, and it’s safe to say the Seahawks are out for revenge. I don’t see this ending well for the Cardinals at CenturyLink Field.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-1)

Tom Savage, are you there? Are you there Tom Savage? Ground control to Major Tom, take your Osweiler pills and put your helmet on…

Baltimore (+6) @ Pittsburgh

Antonio Brown may get a fine just for scoring a TD in this one and acting happy. If Brown had leaped into that Salvation Army pot like Zeke, he would have been banished to the CFL for two seasons. True story.

Denver (+3.5) @ Kansas City

Where have we seen this movie before? You already know how this ends.

2016 Season: 109-79-2 (SU) / 81-99-10 (ATS)



Washington @ Chicago (+3)

Miami (+4.5) @ Buffalo

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ New Orleans

Atlanta (-3) @ Carolina

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-7)

NY Jets (+17) @ New England

Tennessee (-5) @ Jacksonville

San Diego @ Cleveland (+4)

Indianapolis (+3.5) @ Oakland

San Francisco (+4.5) @ Los Angeles

Arizona (+8) @ Seattle

Cincinnati @ Houston (-1)

Baltimore (+6) @ Pittsburgh

Denver @ Kansas City (-3.5)

2016 Season: 118-71-2 (SU) / 90-90-10 (ATS)


*All NFL point spreads from www.vegasinsider.com as of 11:17 PM EST


– – –

Follow authors: @Phil_Jones2020 and @MarkStaniusz



Most Popular

To Top