NFL Pick’off – Week 1


Want to find out the winning formula for NFL Sunday?

(Credit: AP / Patrick Semansky)

And It Begins Anew…

The 98th version of the National Football League kicked off on Thursday night with the defending Superbowl champion New England Patriots getting kicked in the teeth by the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Pats lost by two scores at home and saw their luster diminish by 27.43% in the process.

Despite the loss, most of us are still in awe of the miraculous comeback they orchestrated against the Falcons in last season’s finale.

I’m still looking for splintered fragments of my own jaw on the ground.

Growing a year older, and clearly not wiser, we prepare ourselves for the upcoming season with another degenerative dive into the NFL Pick’off.

While a smarter play would be to pile money into a conservative Mutual Fund, SpaceX Day Trips, uber-popular Cryptocurrency and/or Austro-Hungarian junk bonds… We prefer to throw caution to the wind and roll the dice on that sweet sweet gridiron insider trading dough.

With introductory formalities out of the way, let’s get down to business.

For each Sunday’s games I make my selections “Straight-Up” (SU) and “Against The Spread” (ATS).

The team listed in bold is the straight up pick, where as the red +/- indicates the pick when including the Vegas line at the time of publication.

I’ll provide a brief sentence or two of nonsense or logic (depending on the outcome), for what led me to that choice.

I’ll be competing against Catch-22’s NFL Senior Editor (Mark Staniusz) throughout the season, and I will list his picks below.

2016 Results (Not Including Playoffs)

Mark: 136-83-2 (SU) / 105-105-10 (ATS)

Phil: 129-89-2 (SU) / 98-112-10 (ATS)



NY Jets @ Buffalo (-8)

There is a girl in New York City who calls herself the human trampoline. And sometimes when I’m falling, flying or tumbling in turmoil I say whoa, so this is what she means.

Atlanta (-6.5) @ Chicago

How do you even begin to recover from blowing a 28-3 lead in the 3rd Quarter of the Superbowl? Well, smashing the Bears in Chicago for a curtain raiser is a good start.

Jacksonville @ Houston (-5)

Blake Bortles is both undefeated against Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor.

Philadelphia @ Washington (+1)

This line shifting has me slightly concerned, but then again, so does the state of the universe. I’m basing my selection on the sole fact that Jordan Reed will terrorize the Eagles and provide a most timely catch.

Arizona @ Detroit (+2)

This time the line has moved over 4-points in favour of the Desert Birds. The public does realize that the Lions have a healthy Abdullah & Riddick right? The public was also convinced Hillary Clinton was going to win the Oval Office in a landslide.

Oakland (+2.5) @ Tennessee

Beast Mode does Tennessee.

Tampa Bay @ Miami

CANCELLED because of the impending arrival of Hurricane Irma in South Florida. True story.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-3)

I hate everything about predicting this game. These two are a quintessential coin flip and you can never trust the Bengals. I just flipped a coin… Face palm.

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cleveland

I almost talked myself into taking the Browns to cover, which they may do for the first 3 Quarters until the drugs wear off… Then you’re just left with a real dumb look on your face and an empty wallet.

Indianapolis @ L.A. Rams (-4)


Seattle (+3) @ Green Bay

Did you know that the Akron Pros won the first ever APFA (NFL) Championship in 1920? Don’t know what that has to do with this game, but, now you know. And knowing is 3/4 of the battle.

Carolina (-4.5) @ San Francisco

This seems like the easiest call of the weekend despite Cam only throwing two passes this preseason. It must be a gift from the gambling gods. Don’t buy into the upset hype. Take the money and run for the hills.

N.Y. Giants @ Dallas (-4)




NY Jets (+8)Buffalo

Atlanta (-6.5) @ Chicago

Jacksonville @ Houston (-5)

Philadelphia @ Washington (+1)

Arizona (-2) @ Detroit

Oakland (+2.5) @ Tennessee

Tampa Bay @ Miami

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-3)

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cleveland

Indianapolis @ L.A. Rams (-4)

Seattle @ Green Bay (-3)

Carolina (-4.5) @ San Francisco

N.Y. Giants @ Dallas (-4)


*All NFL point spreads from www.vegasinsider.com as of 10:30PM EST

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Follow authors: @Phil_Jones2020 and @MarkStaniusz






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