NFL Pick’off – Week 4

Nov 15, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Aaron Colvin (22) breaks up a two point conversation attempt to Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Kamar Aiken (11) during the fourth quarterat M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Want to find out the winning formula for NFL Sunday?

The majority of the public got slaughtered last week betting on road favourites. I’ve already erased it from my memory even though my record shows I took the bait like a seasoned novice. I still maintain you shouldn’t bet seriously until Week 6, but I rarely take my own advice.

For each Sunday’s games I make my selections “Straight-Up” (SU) and “Against The Spread” (ATS).

The team listed in bold is the straight up pick, where as the red +/- indicates the pick when including the Vegas line at the time of publication.

I’ll provide a brief sentence or two of nonsense or logic (depending on the outcome), for what led me to that choice.

I’ll be competing against Catch-22’s NFL Senior Editor (Mark Staniusz) throughout the season, and I will list his picks below.

Week 3 Results

Mark:  7-7 (SU) / 8-6 (ATS)

Phil: 5-9 (SU) / 5-9 (ATS)



New Orleans @ Miami (+4)

Carolina @ New England (-9.5)

L.A. Rams @ Dallas (-6)

Detroit @ Minnesota (-2.5)

Tennessee (+2.5) @ Houston

Jacksonville (-3) @ N.Y. Jets

Cincinnati (-3) @ Cleveland

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (+3)

Buffalo (+8) @ Atlanta

N.Y. Giants (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay

Philadelphia @ L.A. Chargers (-2)

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Arizona

Oakland (+3) @ Denver

Indianapolis (+13) @ Seattle

2017 Season: 27-13 (SU) / 22-18 (ATS)



New Orleans (-4) @ Miami

Wait, did we ride with Smokin’ Jay Cutler last week?! I deserve to be sitting in the corner wearing the dunce cap. What happened to Tannehill? Where is Kaepernick? Is Scott Mitchell available? My goodness, this one is being played in England. Drew Brees has been seen wearing a Crystal Palace jersey at the local pub. You know what to do.

Carolina @ New England (-9.5)

Betting this game any other way would be tempting disaster, although my confidence is fragile.

L.A. Rams (+6) @ Dallas

This feels like a game where the Rams almost take that next step. “Almost” being the operative word.

Detroit (+2.5) @ Minnesota

Somewhere Pennywise appeared in the crowd last week in Detroit pointing and laughing as the Lions got burned by another ridiculous innocuous rule. Even when they win, they lose?! Luckily, the Vikings find even more heartbreaking ways to lose.

Tennessee (+2.5) @ Houston

Remember the Titans? Kinda. Sorta. Remember the Texans? Not so much.

Jacksonville (-3) @ N.Y. Jets

Bortlesmania takes over the Medowlands. The Jags pivot is on the verge of besting a legendary NFL record.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Cleveland

There are certain things you do in life that you probably shouldn’t tell anyone about. Betting on this game is one of them.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Baltimore

This is an early candidate for the Twilight Zone Bowl. Both teams looked extra-flat last week. Somebody has to win this week and your guess is as good as mine?

Buffalo @ Atlanta (-8)

Did you know the Bills haven’t won in Atlanta since December 2nd, 1973?

N.Y. Giants (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay

It’s the perfect storm for an Eli outta nowhere game. The line has already started to shift in favour of Big Blue. I’m not the only one foreseeing the writing on the wall.

Philadelphia (+2) @ L.A. Chargers

Road warriors is looking like the theme this week. Rivers and the Chargers are already at 0-3 and have already burned us this season. It seems like time to use the ‘ol reverse logic and avoid the clear and present danger.

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Arizona

You can’t hide your lyin’ eyes… And your smile is a thin disguise… I thought by now you’d realize… There ain’t no way to hide your lyin’ eyes.

Oakland @ Denver (-3)

Broncos bounce back in an overtime thriller. Word to Johnny Miller.

Indianapolis @ Seattle (-13)


2017 Season: 23-17 (SU) / 16-24 (ATS)


*All NFL point spreads from www.vegasinsider.com as of 11:17 (AM) EST


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Follow authors: @Phil_Jones2020 and @MarkStaniusz





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