NFL Pick’off – Week 5

LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 17: Todd Gurley #30 of the Los Angeles Rams evades Deshazor Everett #22 of the Washington Redskins during the third quarter at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on September 17, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Want to find out the winning formula for NFL Sunday?

Week 5 comes crashing at the gates faster than you can say Canadian Thanksgiving. We’re still trying to figure out 3/4 of the league and that’s a conservative estimate. Proceed with caution and good luck making your selections during this refreshingly entertaining slate of games.

For each Sunday’s games I make my selections “Straight-Up” (SU) and “Against The Spread” (ATS).

The team listed in bold is the straight up pick, where as the red +/- indicates the pick when including the Vegas line at the time of publication.

I’ll provide a brief sentence or two of nonsense or logic (depending on the outcome), for what led me to that choice.

I’ll be competing against Catch-22’s NFL Senior Editor (Mark Staniusz) throughout the season, and I will list his picks below.

Week 4 Results

Phil: 8-6 (SU) / 10-4 (ATS)

Mark:  5-9 (SU) / 4-10 (ATS)



L.A. Chargers (+3) @ N.Y. Giants

Buffalo (+3) @ Cincinnati

N.Y. Jets (PK) @ Cleveland

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-8.5)

Tennessee @ Miami (+3)

San Francisco (+1.5) @ Indianapolis

Arizona @ Philadelphia (-6.5)

Carolina @ Detroit (-2.5)

Seattle (+1.5) @ L.A. Rams

Baltimore (+3) @ Oakland

Green Bay @ Dallas (-2)

Kansas City (-1) @ Houston

2017 Season: 32-22 (SU) / 26-28 (ATS)



L.A. Chargers @ N.Y. Giants (-3)

An early riddle of false promise and colossal deceit in the infamous 0-4 Bowl from the Medowlands. The most comedic result would be a tie between these two squads who are a combined (-56) in point differential. I would steer clear of this sh*tshow from a gambling perspective if you can resist temptation. If not, I see Big Blue making less mistakes and narrowly escaping with their first win of the season.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati (-3)

This game is a vintage trap. New York North has all the momentum and gambling swagger going into Cincinnati. What could go wrong? A classic reverse logic pick when things are going too well for the Bills. I want to be incorrect (for what it’s worth), but my gambling sense says wait another week before considering circling the wagons.

N.Y. Jets (PK) at Cleveland

I’ve got a friend in Vegas trying to talk me into taking the Browns on Sunday. That seems like one of those ideas that has momentum during the week, but once kickoff arrives, you become terrified beyond comfort. Granted, we are now riding with the Jets, so proceed with caution whichever way you lean.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-8.5)

Despite the historical evidence, we’re riding with the Steelers in this one… If the Jags couldn’t beat the Jets, they haven’t got a hope in hell of winning in Pittsburgh.

Tennessee (-3) @ Miami

At the time of publication, Marcus Mariota was listed as questionable. Every Sunday you count on Jay Cutler to win money, you’re listed as questionable.

San Francisco (+1.5) @ Indianapolis

The Colts are an NFL worst (-65) in point differential. The 9’ers haven’t won yet but have managed to hang tough in a couple games this season. It’s ripe with possibilities, but I’m more confident with San Fran escaping with their first win of the season.

Arizona @ Philadelphia (-6.5)

I’ve seen enough of a sample size to know that the 2017 Cardinals are a not-so-good football team. This pick seems too obvious which has me slightly worried about a sneaky cover from the Cards. But realistically, are you going to count on the aging wonder known as Carson Palmer to keep this one close. Think about it long and hard before you go and do something stupid.

Carolina @ Detroit (-2.5)

Battle of the cats from Motown. Lions are way off script and closing in on fulfilling their 5-11 record prediction from a publication known as Sports Illustrated. Panthers recently beat the Patriots, but let’s be honest here, the Pats are currently a shell of their former selves. Word to Mickey Munday, the NFL is wide open this year, wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide open.

Seattle (+1.5) @ L.A. Rams

I gave a letter to the postman, he put it his sack. Bright and early next morning, he brought my letter back. She wrote upon it: Return to sender, address unknown. No such number, no such zone.

Baltimore @ Oakland (-3)

It’s times like these that you learn to live again… No Derek Carr? Marshawn Lynch be like “Here, hold my beer.”


Green Bay (+2.5) @ Dallas

Cowboys fans, admit that Aaron Rodgers is already in your head. Admit it, you’re scared and you secretly know you’re going to lose. Letting go of false hope is a great way to clear your mind and lower expectations. There, aren’t you glad we had this talk.

Kansas City (PK) @ Houston

Chiefs have been the only bankable source through the first quarter of the NFL season. They’ve saved a couple of my weekends and are my new favourite team to ride with from a gambling perspective. Kareem Hunt has been a gift horse descending from the heavens for your profit. I wouldn’t peer inside that mouth anytime soon.

2017 Season: 31-23 (SU) / 26-28 (ATS)


*All NFL point spreads from www.vegasinsider.com as of 8:17 (PM) EST

Kareem Hunt

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Follow authors: @Phil_Jones2020 and @MarkStaniusz







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